We explored how Championbred could help a farm look for breeding material. To do that, we took 111 mares from the Chairman’s Sale and ran them against 12 arbitrary stallions: Anamoe, Bivouac, Broadsiding, Extreme Choice, Ghaiyyath, Home Affairs, Ole Kirk, Shinzo, Stay Inside, Tassort, Too Darn Hot and Zoustar. It is important to note that the selection is arbitrary and could be made by region, farm or price.
The idea was to take the 12 reports per mare and give points to the hypothetical crosses in order to indirectly estimate the breeding potential of each mare. To do so, each model receives 0, 1, 2, 3 or 5 points depending on its result from Below Average to Top. The overall report score is rescored on a similar step pattern (<6=0, 6s=1, 7s=2, 8s=3, 9+=5). Matrix cells contribute +1 for each cell >=10% and +2 for each cell >=20%. The final composite uses 65% Model Index, 20% Matrix Index, and 15% Overall Score Index.
Top ranked mares
The highest-ranked mares are those that repeatedly rate well in the upper model indicators and the lower Crosses matrices.
Results distribution
The distribution of results is in line with what is normally seen in horse racing: a distribution close to normal around “average” values, with a long right tail for the remarkable horses.
Best stallions in the ranking
Following the same methodology, we present, as a curiosity, which stallions gave the best results. It is important to note that this depends on the particular group of mares being studied. Ideally, a breeder should select a group of stallions within reach, either by price or location, and then explore his mares or a group of potential mares.
In addition, we can explore the crosses that generated more points in order to find some more explicit affinities.
Conclusions
By using Championbred’s multiple report tool, it is possible to find breeding material among many mares, tailored to the stallions within reach. The statistical advantage becomes clearer as more runs are involved, so it is ideal to use the tool this way. For example, if a share in a horse has a 4% chance of success, and Championbred raises that chance to 15% or 20%, the odds are still against any single share. However, across 10 shares, 4% translates into a 66% chance of no success, while 15-20% translates into only about a 10-20% chance of no success. In this way, larger numbers make the edge more likely to appear concretely.
If a client wants a similar report, Championbred can run it for free from the multiple reports once the run has been made.
If you have any comments or requests, do not hesitate to contact us.